## Statistical Significance of Channel Breakout Variations

One of the key questions you must ask when you see system variations is whether the differences in the performance are statistically significant. There are many ways to differentiate systems other than comparing their net profits. For example, one system may produce fewer trades. Another system may produce a smaller drawdown. Some systems may have a higher percentage of profitable trades. A variation may be useful precisely because it suits your trading style. A paired t-test compares the means...

## Cumulative frequency distribution average 10day daily range in coffee

Figure 3.8 The cumulative frequency distribution of the 10-day average daily range shows that an initial stop of 3,000 or more covers 98.3 percent of all trading ranges. Figure 3.8 The cumulative frequency distribution of the 10-day average daily range shows that an initial stop of 3,000 or more covers 98.3 percent of all trading ranges. If you look more closely at Table 3.11, you will see that for some markets, such as gold, sugar, and soybeans, the length of the average losing trade did not...

## Analysis of Monthly Equity Changes

The impact of a given system on your equity curve will depend on system design and money-management decisions. In this section we look at the monthly equity curve, to understand month-to-month performance. We follow standard accounting procedures and look at the profit and loss figures at the end of each month. You may wish to look at the equity curves on a weekly basis, but the random noise in the market often complicates the analysis of such detailed data. We saw in the previous section that...

## The 65sma3cc Trend Following System

This section discusses how to formulate and test a simple, nonoptimized, trend-following system that makes as few assumptions as possible about price action. It arbitrarily uses a 65-day simple moving average of the daily close to measure the trend. Sixty-five days is simply the daily equivalent of a 13-week SMA 13x5 65 , representing one-quarter of the year. This is an intermediate length moving average that will consistently follow a market's major trend. As shown in Figure 4.1, when the...