Ilapa CAoe e onoAiieiiue kpa3eoeopv o cicoAbJiiiue cpedne

ÄonycTHM, bh 3axoTenH KynHTü TeneBH3op. Ho cäenaTü bh sto xoTHTe no BHroäHoft öeHe HnH, no KpaftHeft Mepe, He nepennaTHB, to ecTü no öeHe, KoTopyro bh co^reTe cnpaBeä-nHBoft. Y3HaTü cnpaBeänHByro öeHy bh cMoxeTe, oö3bohhb HecKonüKo Mara3HHoB. ÄonycTHM hx naTü. nocne SToro bh nony^HTe npeäcTaBneHHe o cpeäHeft öeHe TeneBH3opa h KynHTe ero TaM, räe öeHa HHxe cpeäHeft npH npo^Hx paBHHx ycnoBHax. Ho moxho He 3bohhtü b 5 pa3HHx Mara3HHoB, a 5 pa3 HaBeäaTüca B oäHH H tot xe sneKTpoHHHft cynepMapKeT, KoTopHft HaxoäHTca noönH3ocTH ot Bamero äoMa. EcnH bh öyäeTe BcaKHft pa3 cnpamHBaTü öeHy, a 3aTeM roBopHTü, ^to y KoHKypeHToB 3a yrnoM tot xe TeneBH3op Ha 1.000 Pyöneft äemeBne, pa3Bopa^HBaTüca h yxoäHTü, to, cKopee Bcero, Ha 5-ft Bam BH3HT öeHa TeneBH3opa öyäeT Mano oTnmaTüca ot cpeäHeft b ropoäe, KoHe^Ho, ecnH MeHeäxepH Mara3HHa npoBoäaT rpaMoTHyro öeHoByro nonHTHKy h cneäaT 3a phhkom. C MaTeMarmecKoft to^kh 3peHHa b nepBoM cny^ae bh Büic^HTanH cpeäHroro öeHy h KynHnH no öeHe HHxe ee, a bo btopom - BHHyäHnH npoäaBöa 3a naTü BpeMeHHHx HHTepBanoB npHÖnH-3HTü öeHy k cpeäHeft, ^toöh bh KynHnH TeneBH3op no öeHe He xyxe pümo^Hoft.

HTaK, bh onpeäenaeTe "cnpaBeänHByro" öeHy, opHeHTH-pyacü Ha cpeäHroro pümo^Hyro öeHy. Y^HTHBaa npHHöHn 3, TaKHe xe paccyxeHHa npHMeHHMH h k ^HHaHcoBüiM pHHKaM. HrpoK co3äaeT npeäcTaBneHHe o "cnpaBeänHBoft" öeHe aKTHBa, rnaäa Ha ero cpeäHroro öeHy 3a KaKoft-To nepHoä BpeMeHH. OcTaeTca Bonpoc: KaKoft nepHoä ycpeäHeHHa BHÖparü? To^Horo oTBeTa Ha stot Bonpoc HeT. Oh MoxeT omH^aTüca ot HrpoKa k HrpoKy. EäHHcTBeHHoe, ^to moxho yTBepxäaTü - nepHoä ycpeäHeHHa äonxeH öhtü aäeKBaTeH xapaKTepy pHHKa. EcnH oTäenü-HHft phhok xapaKTepH3yeTca pe3KHMH h ch^ühhmh no aMnnH-Tyäe KoneöaHHaMH öeHH, to Ha TaKoM pHHKe aKTyanüHa cpeäHaa c KopoTKHM nepHoäoM. H HaoÖopoT. BHacHHTü xapaKTep pHHKa moxho, onHpaacü Ha HcTopmecKHe äaHHHe. A HMeHHo: BHÖpaTü Ha rpa^HKe öeHH TpeHäoBHft oTpe3oK, cooTBeTcTByromHft BameMy cmnro ToproBnH, Ha^epTHTü nHHHro TpeHäa h nocMoT-peTü KaKoft H3 nepHoäoB äaeT MaKcHManüHoe npHÖnHxeHHe k nHHHH TpeHäa. Äna MeHa stot nepHoä paBeH 20. noä^epKHy, ^to a yMHmëeHHO He ëeëaro pa3ëH^HH Mexëy ëHëMH, ^acaMH, ceKyH^aMH h T.ë., hôo, "npaBHëLHHH" HHëHKarop ëOëxeH paôo-TaTt Ha ëroôoM OTpe3Ke BpeMeHH. To xe caMoe othochtch h k T0pr0B0H cècTeMe b neëOM. Ïo^eMy xe 20, a He 21 HëH 19? npocTO 20 - Kpyrëaa nèôpa h ^acro BcTpe^aeTca y aHaëHTHKOB, nepHOë oôpaùeHHa ËyHH 28 ëHeH (h3 hhx 20 paôo^Hx), npaBHëo 4-x He^eëL, BcK0ët3L ynoMHHyroe b H3BecTH0M ôecTceëëepe MepÔH, Toxe coëepxHT 20 paôo^HX ëHeH, KaK cëeëyeT H3 Ha3BaHHa, HaKOHen, nepBaa cècTeMa cëeëOBaHHë 3a TpeHëOM, pa3paÔ0TaHHaa b 60-x roëax 0cH0B0n0ë0XHHK0M SToro BHëa cècTeM r-HOM ^OH^aôeHOM, Hcn0ëL30Baëa cpeëHHe c nepHOëOM 5 h 20. EcëH kto-to xeëaeT Hcn0ëL30BaTt nepHOë 21, OTëH^HO. Ha rpaÔHKe hx ôyëeT pa3ëeë»TL hhhtoxho Maëaa BeëH^HHa. Hcn0ëL30BaHHe 3KcnoHeHUHaëLHHX cpeëHHX h npo^HX He ëaeT cyùecTBeHHûix npeHMyùecTB. HccëeëOBaHHë no STOMy Bonpocy npOBOëHëHcL TeXHH^ecKHMH aHaëHTHKaMH HeOëHOKpaTHO. HToroBLift KOHceHcyc - KOMy KaK yëoÔHee. ^ëë MeHë yëoÔHa 20-nepHOëHaa npocTaa cpeëHëë.

KaKHe xe cëeëcTBHë moxho cëeëaTt H3 Toro ôaKTa, ^to cK0ëL3ëùaa cpeëHëë ëëë ôoëLmHHcTBa y^acTHHKOB pHHKa OTpaxaeT "cnpaBeëëHByro" neHy aKTHBa?

OKa3HBaeTca, otohl BaxHHie, a HMeHHO: cK0ëL3ëùaa cpeë-hhh ëOëXHa HrpaTt poët noëëepxKH npH pacTyùeM pHHKe h poët conpoTHBëeHHa npH naëaroùeM. EcëH aKTHB BHrëëëHT npHBëe-KaTeëtH^iM, ^to noëTBepxëaeTca HeëaBHHM poctom neH Ha Hero, to npH ëocTHxeHHH naëaroùeé neHOH ypoBHë, kotophh MHorHe c^HTaroT "cnpaBeëëHBHM", a, 3Ha^HT, npèeMëeMHM ëëë noêyn-kh, HaéëeTca MHoro œeëaroùHX KynHTt stot aKTHB. HanpoTHB, OTcyTcTBHe noêynaTeëeH b paHOHe 03Ha^eHH0H cK0ëL3ëùeô cpeëHeé yêa3HBaeT Ha to, ^to ëaHHHH aKTHB yxe He BHrëëëHT npHBëeKaTeëtHHM b rëa3ax y^acTHHKOB pHHKa. (ïoctpohtl cK0ëL3ëùyro cpeëHroro ëëë ëroôoô BaëroTH bh cMOxeTe Haxarn-eM Tpex KHonoK b nporpaMMe TexHHHecKoro aHaëH3a RUMUS).

CK0ëL3ëùaa cpeëHëë MOxeT cëyxHTt xopomHM ypoBHeM ëëë pa3MeùeHHa 3aùHTHoro cTon-npHKa3a h, ^to He MeHee BaxHO - BHnoëHëTL poët rHëa ëëë ero nocëeëOBaTeëLHoro nepeMeùeHHa no Mepe pa3BHTHë TeHëeHHHH.

Topeoean cucmema Ns1

3a ochobhoH npHHöHn OTKpHTHH no3HöHH no HameH ToproBoH CHCTeMe npHMeM cneäyromHH MOMeHT: Bxoä npoH3-BOäHM ^aCTH^HO B 30He KOHCOnHäaöHH H ^aCTH^HO nO BHXOäy H3 Hee, ecnH BHX0ä npoH3omen b oxHäaeMyro CTopoHy. 3oHy KOHConHäaöHH onpeäenHeM KaK HaxoxäeHHe öeHH b y3K0M KopHäope Ha npoTHxeHHH He MeHee mecTH nepHOäOB (äHeH HnH ^aCOB COOTBeTCTBeHHO). Y30CTL KOpHäOpa COCTaBnHeT npHMepHO 2 ATR (cpeäHHH 0äH0nepH0äHaH aMnnmyäa H3MeHeHHH öeH).

HpH noKynKe 30Ha kohconHäaöHH äonxHa HaxoäHTLCH HeMHoro BHme npocToH CKonL3HmeH cpeäHeH c nepHOäOM 20, K0T0paH He äonxHa noHHxaTLCH, to ecTL äonxHa HMeTL HyneBOH HnH nonoxHTenLHHH HaKnoH. ßBHoe nepece^eHHe nHHHH CC (cKonL3HmeH cpeäHeH) öeHaMH He äonycKaeTCH, höo chh nHHHH npH3BaHa BHnonHHTL ponü ypoBHH noääepxKH. Hoä hbhhm nepece^eHHeM cneäyeT noHHMaTL yäaneHHe öeHH ot CC öonee ^eM Ha 0.25 ATP Ha äByx HnH öonee öapax noäpHä.

HocneäHee, TpeTLe, ycnoBHe: CC c nepHOäOM 40, bo-nepBHX, He äonxHa noHHxaTLCH h, bo-btophx, äonxHa Haxo-äHTLCH HHxe CC 20. HepHOä 40 BHÖpaH änH yBenmeHHH MacmTaöa. 3to He0ÖX0äHM0 änH Toro, ^toöh nonHOCTLro yÖeäHTLCH B OTCyTCTBHH Ha äaHHHH MOMeHT KaKOH-nHÖO TeHäeHöHH Ha pHHKe. Ho^eMy 40, a He 50 HnH 38? H0T0My ^to b TexHH^ecKOM aHanH3e cwraeTCH, ^to yMHoxeHHe nepHOäa HHäHKaTopa Ha 2 He npHBOäHT k noTepe ero cbohctb.

TaKHM 0Öpa30M, mh xenaeM 3aHHTL no3HöHro b oxHäaHHH BHXOäa öeHH H3 30HH KOHCOnHäaöHH BBepX, nOCKOnLKy npH BHnonHeHHH Bcex yKa3aHHHX ycnoBHH BHX0ä ee BBepx npeäCTaBnHeTCH öonee Bepohthhm . OcHOBaHHeM änH TaKHX npeäCTaBneHHH cnyxaT HCTopmecKHe CTaTHCTH^ecKHe äaHHHe.

OnHcaHHaH rpa^mecKaH KOH^HrypaöHH no3BonHeT önH3K0 pa3MecTHTL CTon-nocc, a HMeHHO, Ha ypoBHe yBepeHHoro npoöoH öeHOBoro MHHHMyMa 3ohh KOHConHäaöHH HnH CC 20. Hoä yBepeHHHM npoöoeM noHHMaeTCH yxoä öeHH öonee ^eM Ha 0.25 ATP ot yKa3aHH0H OTMeTKH HnH 3aKpHTHe TeKymero öapa HHxe 3T0H OTMeTKH. TeM caMHM ä0CTHraeTCH xopomee 3Ha^eHHe OTHomeHHH "Harpaäa/pHCK", a Taxxe yÖHTKa no oäHoH KOHKpeT-hoH cäenKe, kotophH äaxe TeopeTH^ecKH He npeBHCHT 3% ot

Bcero KanHTaëa. HanpHMep, yÔHTOK npH HcnoëHeHHH CTon-npHKaça no ëëHHHon no3HnHH no Eâpo, 3aHHTon b 8 yrpa 03-09 Ha ocHoBe ^acoBoro rpaÔHKa, cocTaBHë 6h Bcero 0.8% ot Kannraëa Ha Ha^aëLHon cTaëHH h 1.5% nocëe yBeëH^eHHa noçènHH. B HTore nocëe 3aKpHTHa no3HnHH npè6HëL cocTaBèëa 6h 4% ot Kannraëa, ^to SKBHBaëeHTHo oTHomeHHro "Harpa^a/pHcK" b 2.7, a sto BecLMa Henëoxo ëëa BaëroTHoro pûiHKa h cToët KopoTKoro HHBecTHnHoHHoro HHTepBaëa.

Ëo6aBëeHHe no3HnHH ocyùecTBëaeM npH BHxoëe neHH H3 3ohh KoHcoëH^anHH, ecëH BHxoë npoH3omeë b oxnëaeMyro cTopoHy. npe^ëoxeHHe no KoHKpeTHoMy BpeMeHH cëeëKH TaKoe xe, KaK h npH HcnoëHeHHH cTon-npHKa3a: ëè6o 0.25 ATP, ëè6o 3aKpHTHe BLime BepxHen rpaHHnû 3ohh KoHcoëèëanHH. Ha 6èpxeBHx pûiHKax ëëa noëTBepœëeHHa cnëûi HMnyëLca, noëy^e-HHoro phhkom, ycnemHo HcnoëL3yeTca o6teM ToproB b stot MoMeHT. Ha pûiHKe FOREX, k coxaëeHHro, y3HaTL to^hhh o6teM cëeëoK HeBo3MoxHo, nosToMy a npeëëararo npocTo one-HHBaTL aKTHBHocTt ToproBëH. EcëH kothpobkh MeHaroTca ^acro h co3ëaeTca BnewrëeHHe HeKoTopon naHHKH - HMnyëLc bhcok.

Pa36èeHHe nponeëypû 3aHaTHa no3HnHH Ha ëBa STana no3BoëaeT, Bo-nepBHx, noëy^HTL HaM cpeëHroro neHy otkphthh no3HnHH npHMepHo paBHon neHe rpaHHnû npexHen 3ohh KoHcoëHëanHH, a bo-btophx, b ëBa pa3a chh3htl y6HToK, ecëH BLixoë H3 3ohh KoHcoënëannH npoH3omeë b npoiHBonoëoxHyro cTopoHy.

3aùHTHHn cTon-npHKa3 ycTaHaBëHBaeTca cpa3y h pa3MeùaeTca noë 20-nepHoëHon cpeëHen HëH b cepeëHHe 3ohh kohcoëHëanHH, cmotph ^to 6ëèœe k TeKyùen neHe. Ïo^eMy cepeëHHa? EëHHoro MHeHHa TyT HeT, ho moxho ëonycTHTL, ^to Bo3BpaT neHûi k cepeëHHe npexHero KopHëopa noëHocTLro yHH^ToxaeT Bo3HHKmee Bo3MyùeHHe Ha pûiHKe h Bo3BpaùaeT ero b npexHee paBHoBecHe. 3Ha^nr, npopHB oêa3aëca ëoxHLiM, h oTcyrcTByroT npH^HHH 3aHaTHa KaKon-ëH6o no3HnHH.

Ëaëee, npH pa3BHTHH TpeHëa b hyxhom HaM HanpaBëeHHH mh nepeëBHraeM cTon-npHKa3 BMecTe c ëBHœyùenca 20-nepèoëHon cpeëHen. Ho, ecëH phhok b npeëtiëyùHe HecKoëLKo nepèoëoB noêa3aë ëoKaëLHLin mhhhmym, to mh pa3MeùaeM cTon-npHKa3 noë sthm mhhhmymom h paccMaTpHBaeM ero KaK

6oëee 060CH0BaHH^iH ypoBeHL. EcëH TeHäeHöH» npoâOëœaeTca, h BHCTaBëeHHHH CTon-npHKa3 Ha^HHaeT KaçaTLCH HeonpaB-äaHHO âaëeêo pa3MemeHHHM, mh CHoBa Bo3BpamaeMCë k cpeâHeé. TeM He MeHee, çaêpHTHe nepHoäa HHœe cpeäHen, ho BHme yêaçaHHoro ëoKaëûHoro MHHHMyMa, ëoëXHo 3acTaBHTü HaC 3aKpHTB no3HöHTO. ECëH phhok CTaHoBHTCë 6emeHHHM (wild), to eCTü aMnëHTyâa H3MeHeHHë neH pe3Ko Bo3pacTaroT, to neëecoo6pa3Ho 3aKpHTü noëoBHHy no3HöHH, äa6H chh3htü Koëe6aHHë BeëH^HHH KanHTaëa. Oco6eHHo 3to HyœHo ëeëaTt, Koräa TeHäeHöHH HMeeT yœe coëèëHHH Bo3pacT h BepoHTHocTL ee npeêpaùeHHë Bo3pacTaeT. Hctophh noêa3HBaeT, ^to neHa 3aKpHTHë no3HöHH b 3tom cëyrae 6yäeT Maëo oTëH^aTLca ot htotoboh öeHH 3aKpHTHë no CTon-npHKa3y, npmeM oTëH^He 3to 6yäeT He b noëû3y nocëeâHero. HeäaBHHH npHMep - äeHü äocTHxeHHH Eâpo napHTeTa k Âoëëapy. ÂMnëmyâa Koëe6aHHé b tot äeHü cocTaBHëa 2 ATP, ^to CTaëo caMHM 6oëLmHM 3Ha^eHHeM co äHH TeppopHCTH^eCKHX aKToB B AMepHKe, a phhok 3aKpHëca Ha 1,0042. Bûxoâ no CTon-npHKa3y npoH3omeë 6h Ha mecTL âHeé no3äHee no 0,9910. 3aKpHTHe no3HöHH ocymecT-BëëeTca no CTon-npHKa3y h b noëHoM o6teMe.

B nepHoäH Heyäa^, rpo3ëùèx npeBparHTtca b âëHTeëûHyro noëocy (TaKoe 6ûBaeT ëoBoëLHo ^acTo c KaœâHM HHBecTopoM) peKoMeHäyeTca yMeHümaTt o6teM no3HöHH ot câeëKH k câeëKe, ^to6h coxpaHHTü KanHTaë âëë 6ynymèx CBeTëHx âHeé. KaK ToëtKo yäa^a Ha^HeT noBopa^HBaTLca ëHnoM k HaM, o6teM câeëoK moxho 6ûCTpo BepHyTü Ha npexHHH ypoBeHü.

Manu-MeHedœMeHm (ynpaeëeHue KanumaëOM)

MaHH-MeHeäXMeHT - ot aHrë. "money management" -ynpaBëeHHe äeHüraMH. Miorèe Ha^HHaromèe TpeéâepH h HHBeCTopH C^HTaroT MaHH-MeHeäXMeHT TOM-TO CëH0KoM Hayq-hhm h TpyäHHM âëë BocnpHëTHë h cpa3y oT6pacHBaroT ero, He xeëaa TpaTHTü BpeMë Ha H3y^eHHe. Ha caMoM âeëe Heo6xoäHMo 3HaTü ëèfflt HecKoëûKo npaBHë, a To^Hee MeToäHKy pac^eTa pHCKa Ha oäHy câeëKy. npoäeMoHCTpHpyro Ha npHMepe: mh xothm KynHTt EUR/USD no 0.9820. Bo-nepBHX, Heo6xoäHMo eme äo noêynKH o6o3Hawrü ypoBeHü CTon-npHKa3a, npH kotopom mh BHHyxäeH^i 6yäeM npH3HaTt, ^to Harna oneHKa

0Ka3anacü omHÖo^HOH h nHKBHäHpoBaTü no3HUHro. ÄonycTHM, ^to 3T0T ypoBeHü mh BHápanH paBHHM 0.9750. Toräa ocTaeTca onpeäenHTt nocneäHroro Heo6xoäHMyro HaM BenmHHy - oáúeM cäenKH. OHa pacc^HTHBaeTca äeneHHeM nony^eHHoro b cnyrae HcnonHeHHa cTon-npHKa3a yÖHTKa Ha BenmHHy Bcero KanHTana. ÄonycTHM, ^to mh o6naäaeM ToproBHM KanHTanoM b 50.000. ÄonycTHM TaKxe, ^to mh He xenaeM TepaTü Ha stoh oäHoH cäenKe áonüme 2% Harnero KanHTana. Toräa ó6htok/50.000 <= 0.02. CooTBeTcTBeHHo, ó6htok 6yäeT paBeH (0,9820-0,9750)*S, räe S - oáúeM cäenKH. OTcroäa HaxoäHM S no ^opMyne: S = 0,02*50.000/(0,9820-0,9750) = 142.857 ÄonnapoB HnH 145.475 EBpo. KoHe^Ho, oKpyrnHB, mh 3aHanH 6h no3HUHro pa3MepoM 150.000 EUR/USD. nne^o cocTaBHno 6h 1:3. OTcroäa nonyraeTca, ^to, noBHrnaa nne^o äo 1:4, mh äonxHH pa3MecTHTü cTon-npHKa3 Ha 0,9769 HnH no3BonHTü ce6e npoHrpaTt Ha stoh cäenKe 2.8% KanHTana. AHanormHo, npH Hcnonü3oBaHHH nne^a 1:100, cTon äonxeH 6htü pa3Me^eH Ha 0,9818, HHa^e mh npoHrpaeM 69% cBoero KanHTana.

HyxHo ^eTKo noHHMait HenHHeéHyro cbh3ü Mexäy yáHT-KaMH h npHáHnüro, cy^ecTByro^yro b ToproBne Booá^e. ó6htok b 10% noTpeáyeT ot Bac nony^eHHa nocneäyro^eH npHáHnH b 11%, ^to6h BepHyTLca Ha KpyrH cBoa. A nocne nony^eHHa yáHTKa b 50% äna Bo3Bpa^eHHa k npexHeMy coctohhhto BaM noTpeáyeTca äo6HTüca npHáHnH b 100%! O6^ee MHeHHe aHanHTHKoB TaKoBo, ^to npeäenüHo äonycTHMHH ó6htok, e^e ocTaBnaro^HH maHcH oiHrpaitca, cocTaBnaeT 33%. npH TaKoM yáHTKe 6yäeT Heo6xoäHMo BHHrpaTü b nocneäcTBHH 50%, ^to c^HTaeTca äociHXHMHM. ó6htok b pa3Mepe 50% h 6onee no^TH HaBepHaKa npHBeäeT k ^HHaHcoBoé cMepTH HHBecTopa.

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