The Elliott Wave
The primary reason to be interested in understanding the Elliott wave is that it is the best indicator of where you are in the market's movement from down to up and back down again. Reading the market is like trying to understand how New York City functions. You could spend one day with each of the five borough presidents, to get an indepth understanding of what is happening in each borough at that time. Another approach would be to take a helicopter and view the entire city from about the height of the World Trade Center. The Profitunity approach is comparable to indepth interviews: we find out what is happening in the "lives" of individual commodities at the present time. The Elliott wave takes us to a higher altitude and shows, from a wider viewpoint, how the market is operating.
The Elliott wave has received considerable discussion through the years. Many derogatory comments have come from those who don't profit from using it because they don't understand what it is and how it works. The Elliott wave is an analysis of the underlying structure of the market. As we will see in Chapter 8, the Elliott wave is the underlying structure of the market, and the fractal is the underlying structure of the Elliott wave.
R. N. Elliott, for whom this approach is named, studied the markets for years, searching for some repeatable pattern that would let him pick the tops and bottoms. The Elliott wave is a top and bottom picker. Normally, this is dangerous to your financial health, as most Elliott students will document.
A. J. Frost and Robert Prechtor (1978) described the Elliott wave and the personalities of the various waves. They gave excellent documentation and description of the Elliott wave, but did not give specific directions as to how to trade the Elliott wave profitably. When their work was published, I read it at least a dozen times. At that time, I was developing the MFI and I decided to do some research on the differences between the waves as measured by the MFI.
Basic Rhythms of the Elliott Wave
The Elliott sequence consists of a basic rhythm of "fives" corrected by "threes." This sequence remains constant no matter what degree of wave is being analyzed. This wave rhythm is observable as long as there is a minimum amount of trading volume. As a rule of thumb, we use a minimum average of 20 ticks per time period, although the Elliott sequence can often be seen in a shorter period market with much less volume—for example, the oneminute chart.
Even more important than the time scale is the "form" of the patterns. Waves can be stretched or compressed (both in time and price), but the underlying form remains constant. A movement will unfold in its primary direction in a series of 5 waves, labeled 1 through 5. A 5wave movement is normally corrected by a 3wave movement in the opposite direction. The numbered waves (15) were called "cardinal waves" by Elliott. Frost and Prechtor popularized the term "impulse waves" for waves 1, 3, and 5. Corrective waves are designated with small letters (a, b, c, d, e).
As shown in Figure 71, the first wave is corrected by wave 2, and wave 3 is corrected by wave 4. Then the 5wave sequence is corrected by a 3wave sequence, labeled abc.
After a 5wave sequence is complete, it will usually become a wave of "larger degree," or a wave contributing to a larger wave. The complete movement of waves 1 through 5 will complete the next higher tier of wave sequences. Therefore, the movement from wave 1 to wave 5 completes a wave 1, a wave 3, or a wave 5, and the abc sequence completes either a wave 2 or a wave 4. (See Figure 72.)
CD or CD 5
Characteristics of the Different Waves
The basic rules of wave theory are simple enough, but the applications of these rules daunt most wave theory students. By using the Profitunity indicators explained in the previous chapter, this job becomes simple, concise, and accurate. One of the greatest pleasures in trading is to watch your wave count unfold just the way you anticipated. Many of the relationships that most Elliotticians discuss are really tendencies, and they are neither permanent nor precise. In addition, these relationships change over time. Just as you begin to count on them and place money on your interpretation, they change. We have solved this problem.
Before we explain our solution, let's examine the various waves and the relationships among those waves. Again, I must emphasize that some of the concepts that make our Elliott wave analysis much more accurate is our reliance on the Profitunity indicators that describe market participation in the present tense.
Wave 1
First waves are always a changeintrend movement. The first traders who get into the new trend are always running the "Have Fun" psychological program explained in Chapter 12. The beginning of wave 1 (which is either the end of a wave 5 or the end of a wave c or e, coming from the opposite direction) will be accompanied by a divergence in our MFI oscillator. Once we have all the indicators in place, we expect a sharp move off the bottom (top). This may also be a point zero (see the Profitunity Planned Trading (PPT) technique in Level Three, Chapter 9), which allows us even more trading and profit opportunities.
The best way to anticipate and target the end of a wave 1 is to examine the internal structure and waves of a smaller degree. Look at a smaller time frame; for example, look for the 5wave sequence inside of the developing wave 1 (Figure 73). Then check out (1) the divergence, (2) the target zone, (3) the fractals, (4) the squats, and (5) a change in the momentum indicator. We call these our five magic bullets because they almost always kill the current trend.
Wave 2
Once the first wave has finished, we anticipate a second wave in the opposite direction. Second waves are created by new selling (buying)—as opposed to fourth waves, which are created by profit taking (long liquidation or short covering). Wave 2 targets can be generated by (1) Fibonacci relationship and (2) internal wave counts.
The most common targets for the end of wave 2 are between 38 percent and 62 percent retracement of the range of wave 1 (Figure 74). About three out of four wave 2s will end in this
1 CD
area; only about one in six will retrace more than 62 percent. Another tip is that if wave 2 ends with less than a 38 percent correction, wave 2 will usually be an irregular correction (see Figure 711, later in this chapter).
Again, wave 2 is produced by new selling in an up trend (or buying in a down trend) by traders who are not in the market and do not recognize that this up move is a wave 1 in a new direction (see the section on finding point zero, in Chapter 9). These traders believe wave 1 is simply another correction in a continuing down move, so they sell at the top of wave 1. This is why wave 2 behaves quite differently from wave 4, which is a profittaking wave. Traders in the market with profits will take more time getting out than traders seeing new opportunities in the market. It is extremely important to target accurately the end of wave 2: the greatest profittaking opportunities per unit of time happen in wave 3, which generally moves faster and travels a greater distance.
Wave 3
Robert Prechtor calls wave 3 "... a wonder to behold." Wave 3 gives us great profit opportunities. When we reach Level Five (Chapter 12), we will analyze the psychological properties that accompany wave 3.
One way to recognize a wave 3 is by its slope. It is generally steeper (going through price changes faster) than a wave 1. Wave 3s sometimes seem almost vertical (Figure 75), and can be mistaken for wave 5 blowoffs (selloffs). Generally, a wave 3 has heavy volume. If a powerful, fast move is accompanied by less volume, it usually is a blowoff (selloff). During wave 3, the economic background begins to support the move (this is not true during wave 1). Fundamental reasons begin to pile atop the technical indicators. These are the most immensely profitable times to be in the market and it is imperative to "load the wagon" on these waves.
The best initial targets for the length of wave 3 are between 1 and 1.62 times the length of wave 1. Rarely will wave 3 be shorter than wave 1, and often it will be longer than 1.62 times the length of wave 1. The best way to target the end of wave 3 is to go to a smaller time frame and use a confluence of the five magic bullets to find the end of the fifth wave of wave 3 indicators. These magic bullets are:
1. Divergence in our MFI oscillator;
2. Location inside the target zone;
3. Formation of a fractal on the top (bottom);
4. A squat in one of the three topmost (lowest) bars;
5. A change in direction of the momentum on the Profitunity moving average convergence divergence (MACD).
Wave 4
Once the powerful wave 3 is over, profit taking enters the picture. The most skillful traders were into the trend earliest, and therefore are sitting on ample profits. The character of wave 4 is entirely different from that of wave 2. Elliott labeled this difference as the rule of alternation: If wave 2 is simple, wave 4 will be complex, and vice versa. A simple correction is usually considered to be a zigzag. If that happens in wave 2, wave 4 should be a complex sideways correction (flat, irregular, triangle, double or triple threes).
In our research, we found that 85 percent of all whiplashes occur during wave 4. If you simply cannot come up with any idea where you are in the wave count, you most likely are in a wave 4. If you wake up and are in a wave 4, the best strategy might be to go back to bed. However, as this is being written, several commodities have been in wave 4s on the monthly charts for years. I am not willing to stay in bed that long.
Besides, if we can target the end of a wave 4, we will have great profit opportunities to trade wave 5.
The retracement percentages on wave 4 (Figure 76) are quite different from those on wave 2. Generally, wave 4 corrections last much longer—often, up to 70 percent as long (timewise) as the entire 5wave sequence you are watching. Wave 4s generally do not retrace as much, pricewise, as wave 2. Again, this is caused by profit taking rather than new entries into the market. You generally see a precipitous drop in volume, volatility, option premiums, and momentum indicators.
Only about one in six wave 4s retraces less than 38 percent of wave 3. The most likely target is between 38 percent and 50 percent. In watching wave 4 develop, remember that an "unbreakable" rule is that wave 4 never goes below the top of wave 1. In actual trading, you will see a number of instances where the rule does not hold true.
In analyzing wave 4 to get good trade location to trade wave 5, use the Fibonacci relationships and look for the five magic bullets on a smaller time frame inside wave c of wave 4. Make sure that you have between 100 and 140 bars in the c wave. You get that number by manipulating the time frame on the chart.
methods form targets that are in a tight cluster, confidence goes up that we can forecast the terminal point of wave 5. The length of wave 5 is measured from the bottom of wave 4, so no final targets can be projected until wave 4 has ended. (The next section, on combining the MFI oscillator with the Elliott wave, gives the minimum requirements for wave 4.)
One of the most accurate predictors of the end of wave 5 is the target zone. I learned of this methodology from Tom Joseph of Trading Techniques, Inc. (677 W. Turkeyfoot Lake Road, Akron, Ohio 44319), and have found it to be extremely useful and profitable. Measure the difference in price between the start of wave 1 and the end of wave 3 (waves 03). Then add this measurement to the bottom of wave 4. Take 62 percent of the length of that difference, and add it to the bottom of wave 4 also. The vast majority of times, wave 5 will end between those two numbers. You can even improve on this accuracy by doing the same procedure inside of the fifth wave of wave 5. This will give you an even smaller target zone. Normally, the smaller zone from the five waves inside the larger wave 5 will fall inside the larger target zone from the larger degree waves. This narrows your target zone even more. Next, by adding the Profitunity indicators of the fractal and squat, plus the divergence between wave 3 and wave 5, you can get very precise profittaking and tradeentry points.
The complete movement of waves 1 through 5 will usually complete the next higher tier of wave sequences. Therefore, the movement from wave 1 to wave 5 completes a wave 1, a wave 3, or a wave 5, and the abc sequence completes either a wave 2 or a wave 4 (see Figure 78).
Corrections
Corrections are normally classified as simple or complex. Simple refers to zigzag corrections, and complex refers to everything else. In abc threewave corrections, whether simple or
Wave 1, 3, or 5 Completed 5
complex, the b wave always contains three waves, and the c wave always contains five waves. The a wave may contain either three waves or five waves. If it contains five waves, that is your tipoff that it is going to be a zigzag type correction. If it contains three waves, it most likely will be a flat, irregular, or triangle correction.
Simple (Zigzag) Corrections
Once the five waves of wave a are finished, the b wave correction normally will not retrace more than 62 percent of the length of wave a (Figure 79). In rare instances, it may correct to 75 percent. Because wave c shares the characteristics of wave 3, it can be a profitable trading format. If wave b ends between 50 percent and 62 percent of wave a, look for a fractal and a
Therefore, if five waves can be identified in wave a, expect a tradable zigzag pattern to materialize.
Wave a of a zigzag pattern is always five waves.
Figure 79 Simple (zigzag) correction.
Figure 79 Simple (zigzag) correction.
squat to establish an entry for trading wave c. Then trade wave c just as you would any other fivewave sequence.
Use the five magic bullets to take profit at the end of wave c of wave 4, and reverse to trade wave 5 in the opposite direction.
Complex Corrections
There are three types of complex corrections: (1) flat correction (Figure 710), (2) irregular correction (Figure 711), and (3) triangle correction (Figures 712 and 713).
Flat b
Figure 710 Flat correction.
Wave a in other types of corrections is three waves, a
Figure 710 Flat correction.
In a flat correction, each wave is almost identical/equal. If wave b exceeds the high of the last impulse wave, you can suspect an irregular correction.
Triangle corrections are fivewave patterns labeled abcde. They usually occur in the next to the last wave sequence— wave 4 or wave b. When triangles occur in wave 4, prices tend to shoot out in the direction of the impulse wave 3 being corrected (Figure 712). When triangles occur in wave b, prices tend to shoot out in the direction of the correction wave a being corrected (Figure 713).
We have examined the characteristics and typical formations of both the impulse and the corrective waves. Next, we need to find easy and profitable techniques of entering trades to maximize the predictability given by accurate analysis of wave structure.
TAKING THE AMBIGUITY OUT OF THE ELLIOTT WAVE
I have had great personal interest in the Elliott wave since the first time I saw some old photocopies of R. N. Elliott's market
Triangle corrections are five wave patterns labeled abcde.
Triangles usually occur in the next to last wave sequence, such as wave 4 or wave b. <> >
When triangles occur in wave 4, prices tend to shoot out in the direction of the impulse wave 3 being corrected.
Figure 712 Wave 4 triangle correction.
comments, long before Frost and Prechtor wrote their book. The Elliott wave made sense but was of little use in trading the market. I attributed my inability to count waves accurately to my lack of knowledge and/or experience.
Several things bothered me about the Elliott wave. First, Elliotticians don't actually count the waves themselves; they count the price change that a wave covers. In the example
When triangles occur in wave b, prices tend to shoot out in the direction of the correction wave a being corrected.
Figure 713 Wave b triangle.
Figure 714 Two units high vs. two units wide (left), and two units high vs. ten units wide (right).
Figure 714 Two units high vs. two units wide (left), and two units high vs. ten units wide (right).
shown in Figure 714, a wave that is two units high and two units wide (the time dimension) would be counted the same as a wave two units high and ten units wide. One thing is certain: while they both would be counted as two units high, they are not the same type of market.
The height of a wave is always counted on the vertical axis, ignoring the time factor. When the time factor is counted, each wave produces a right triangle (Figure 715). In studying this, I noticed that there seemed to be a relationship between the area created by the price and the time change of each wave.
This studying was going on in the early 1980s, and I was using a handheld calculator to work out the areas. I found that if you take the area under wave 1 and add it to the area of wave
2, your answer will tend to equal or have a Fibonacci relationship (usually 62 percent) to the area of wave 3. Then, by subtracting the area of wave 4 from the area of wave 3, you end up with the area wave or a Fibonacci relationship.
Armed with this insight, I hired a computer programmer to write the software to calculate and predict the end of the following wave. When we input the beginning and ending prices of wave 1 and counted the number of bars on the time frame I was trading (usually 60minute bars), the computer would calculate three different timeprice targets for the end of wave 2. It also would automatically rankorder these projections, based on probability.
This one step put me quantum leaps ahead in trading the Elliott wave.
COMBINING THE MFI WITH THE ELLIOTT WAVE
As noted earlier, one of the key indicators we use in Profitunity trading is the Market Facilitation Index (MFI). This is a basic measure of how effectively the current trading volume is moving price through time. It is an indicator of tick (gas) mileage. The higher the MFI, the more the price changes for each unit of volume. We want our money invested in the market when the price is moving the fastest, giving us the maximum rate of return. The MFI (explained in Chapter 6) is the range divided by the volume, and the answer is compared to the previous time period. After working with this indicator for several years, we noticed that there was a different range in each of the Elliott waves.
Most traders, even professional Elliotticians, sometimes find counting the waves on a price chart quite frustrating. I sought a better, more convenient, more accurate, and less subjective measure to count the waves. My next idea was to calculate the MFI in each wave, by averaging the MFI bars and then comparing the different averages for the different waves. I found exactly what I had anticipated.
The average MFI was highest during wave 3. On wave 1 and wave 5, this average was less. It was clear that there was a divergence between the price at the end of wave 5 and the average MFI for wave 5. Although the price was higher at the end of wave 5 than at the end of wave 3, the average MFI for wave 5 was less, creating a divergence (Figure 716). This divergence became an advance indicator for the end of this impulse series and forecasted a change in trend. Having identified a set of parameters, we were then able to trade from them or build an indicator to identify this difference between the market facilitation in each wave. This has been done successfully with the MFI. The MFI is a true presenttense momentum indicator.
Most of the "offtheshelf" indicators, such as stochastics, RSI, and so on, do not compare momentum. They compare the current price with the price x bars ago. They do not compare the
Figure 716 Average MFI divergence between wave 3 and wave 5
rate of internal price action inside wave 5 to that inside wave 3. Therefore, the more traditional indicators used by traders today will not consistently show the end of a trend, the most crucial information in trading.
Tom Joseph, an excellent researcher in trading techniques, has generated a very effective momentum indicator. He takes a 35bar moving average and subtracts it from a 5bar moving average. This produces an oscillator that is programmable on most quote machines. The 5period average smoothes and represents the current strength of the market, and the 35bar moving average indicates the momentum strength over a longer period. We have found that if we change the numbers to a 5bar/34bar (5/34) oscillator, we get an extremely close approximation of the difference found by the more laborious job of averaging the MFI for each wave.
For example, assume that you are currently in a wave 3. The 5period moving average represents the rate of movement inside the wave 3. This rate of change, like the MFI, is moving faster than at any other time in the Elliott wave sequence. The 34period moving average represents the rate movement or MFI inside waves 1 and 2. This rate of change is much slower than the 5period rate, creating a large difference between the two moving averages. Wave 3 produces the highest peak in the 5/34 oscillator. Over the years, we have tinkered with this oscillator in a number of ways.
The 5/34/5 Profitunity MACD
We found that, by adding a 5period moving average to the oscillator, we changed the oscillator into a moving average convergence divergence (MACD). This last average becomes a "signal line" or an indicator of market rhythm (discussed in Chapter 9), which allows us further confidence in the trades we are placing. It gives a leading indicator, showing exactly where the market begins to run out of steam. This signal will happen before there is a directional (momentum) change observable in the price. The 5/34/5 Profitunity MACD tells instantly which side of the market we should be on.
There are four primary uses for the 5/34/5 Profitunity MACD:
1. Identifying the peak of wave 3;
2. Determining the end of wave 4, or when its minimum requirements have been met;
3. Looking for the end of a trend and the top of wave 5;
4. Signaling immediately the direction of the current momentum, or which side of the market the trader wishes to trade.
Identifying the Peak of Wave 3
In a fivewave sequence, both the average MFI and the 5/34/5 Profitunity MACD will peak at the top of wave 3 (see Figure 717). If we place the 5/34 oscillator in a histogram format, we can easily determine the bar on which the peak occurs. Because all oscillators are lagging indicators, the peak of wave 3 will be the highest (lowest) price that occurs between 1 and 5 bars prior to the peak in the oscillator.
Immediately after the peak, we notice the histogram moving below the signal line. The signal line is the 5bar average of the oscillator itself. When this happens, be careful about placing any longs: the momentum is running out of steam. If long, you may choose to hold on through wave 4 or you may decide to take your profits and wait until this oscillator indicates that the minimum requirements for wave 4 have been met.
Determining the End of Wave 4
After the end of wave 3, the oscillator will pull back with the retracing wave 4. The histogram will fall below the signal line,
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5 SIM (MI)  34 SIM (MI) I 0 SIM (CL)  0 SIM (CL) I
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Figure 718 Japanese yen, hourly chart.
The first question might be: Are you sure that wave 4 is over? The 5/34/5 Profitunity MACD will give you a definite answer only if you have the appropriate number of bars (100140) on the screen. From point X to point Y, there are only 33 bars. Notice, though, that the MACD peaks at point A but does not cross the zero line at point B. Because we have only 33 bars on the hourly chart and we need at least four times that many, we can tab down to a 15minute chart (Figure 719) to get a precise reading.
Figure 719 shows the same Japanese yen on a 15minute chart containing 102 bars between points X and Y. There are two important activities to notice in this chart. First, the MACD has crossed the zero line at point R, telling us that the minimum requirements for wave 4 have been met. Thus, early in the trading day on June 9, we could start looking for a good trade location to go long.
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OSCILLATOR RJU4 15 MINUTE BAR
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Figure 719 Japanese yen, 15minute chart.
Second, this chart gives vital information about what is happening between points P and Q. There is divergence (the price is higher but the oscillator is not), but the oscillator does not go back to zero. This occurrence indicates that point P is wave 3 of wave 3, and wave 5 of wave 3 is at point Q. This knowledge will save you from the most common mistakes Elliotticians make: counting wave 3 inside of wave 3 as the end of the third wave, and then counting wave 5 of wave 3 as a larger degree wave 5.
When that happens, the Elliotticians are short at point The market finishes wave 4 and they get "creamed" because of that error in their count.
Assuming that you found a good trade location based on the crossover of the zero line and you have the appropriate number of bars in the wave count, you are ready to start planning your profit taking. To count more precisely the waves between points © and (D, we must consult a 5minute chart and get enough bars to count wave 5 of wave 5. From Figure 720,
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5 SIM (MI)  34 SIM (MI) O SIM (CD  O SIM (CD 5 SIM
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Figure 720 Japanese yen, 5minute chart.
we can see that we are in the fourth wave of wave CD. We have fulfilled the minimum requirements for wave 4 of wave © {again, as noted by the MACD crossing the zero line), and we can estimate the target zone for the end of wave 5 of wave
These three charts (Figures 718 through 720) deserve careful study. If you have a thorough understanding of this approach, you will maximize your profits and minimize the risk you need to take. Your entries and exits will generate the confidence needed to move to higher levels of trading.
Remember, once you have your wave sequence in the proper perspective (100140 bars for the wave series you are counting), you can determine when the minimum requirements for wave 4 have been met, that is, when the oscillator crosses the zero line. An important note here: the oscillator crosses the zero line after a peak in wave 3 indicates the minimum requirements for wave 4 have been met. It does not indicate that wave 4 is over, and it would be premature to place a trade for wave 5 until after this indicator has crossed the zero line.
To increase the preciseness of entering a trade at the end of wave 4, look for the abc or triangle correction. Further, look inside the last wave (c; or e, if in a triangle) for the five magic bullets inside of that smaller wave.
Another way to anticipate the end of wave 4 is to look at the Fibonacci time projections. First, measure (timewise) the distance between the peaks of wave 1 and wave 3. Then multiply this distance by two Fibonacci ratios. You will find that most wave 4s will end in the time period between 1.38 and 1.62 times the length from the peak of wave 1 to the peak of wave 3 when measured from the bottom of wave 2. Putting all these indicators together will give you an excellent target zone, both f Time CD — <D
Figure 721 A timing model for estimating the end of wave 4.
Time Period for Possible End of Wave 4
Figure 721 A timing model for estimating the end of wave 4.
point. Again, the most common mistake Elliotticians make is confusing the peak of wave 5 inside a larger wave 3 for the end of wave 5. Based on this error, they take new positions in the opposite direction and are killed as the real wave 5 evolves and stops them out.
After finishing wave 5 inside the larger wave 3, the MACD will come back to zero line for the indication that the minimum requirements for the larger wave 4 have been met. Wave 4 will often end near the end of the wave 4 inside the larger wave 3. If this point is near a common Fibonacci retracement, it gives more credibility to this target.
With skill in trading this MACD, you can throw away your stochastics, RSI, momentum indicators, and similar tools. Nothing comes close to the accuracy demonstrated by this MACD. This indicator alone should be invaluable to any serious trader.
This divergence pattern happens many times every day in every commodity. It is priceless for both intraday and longerterm position trading.
In Chapter 10, we will put together in a single format (the Profitunity Trading Partner) everything we have discussed thus far and add two more indicators.
SUMMARY
In this chapter, we examined the Elliott wave by looking at the basic rhythms the market follows. Next, we analyzed the characteristics of the individual waves and introduced a tool that takes the ambiguity out of wave counting.
We focused on the four uses of the 5/34/5 Profitunity MACD and reviewed charts that illustrated its capabilities.
In the next chapter, we will examine the underlying structure of the Elliott wave, which is the fractal. We will learn how to trade the Elliott wave even if we don't know exactly where we are in the wave count.
REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What are the three "unbreakable" rules of Elliott wave analysis? Which one is often broken?
2. Which one of the three corrective wave patterns should always contain three waves? Which should always contain five waves? Which may contain either five or three waves? If that wave has five waves, what can you conclude about the type of correction needed?
3. What are the most common (therefore most expected) Fibonacci ratios in wave b of (a) zigzag, (b) flat, and (c) irregular correction?
4. What are the most common (therefore most expected) Fibonacci ratios in wave c of (a) zigzag, (b) flat, and (c) irregular correction?
5. What is the best way to trade a triangle correction?
6. Describe the characteristics of wave 1, wave 2, wave 3, wave 4, and wave 5.
7. What oscillator most closely matches and gives you an online instant readout of the average MFI?
8. What advantage does an MFI have over an oscillator?
9. What vital information does the signal line on the 5/34/5 Profitunity MACD give?
10. What four important bits of trading information does the 5/34/5 Profitunity MACD offer both longterm and shortterm traders?
11. On what number of divergences will most trends end?
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