Hell Really Exists
Face it America is overpopulated with board-certified, repeat-offender tenants from hell, who specialize in bilking ignorant, unsuspecting landlords out of millions of dollars in unpaid rent and property damage annually. Here are six steps that you must follow when selecting tenant applicants to avoid being victimized by the numerous tenants from hell
The I'm mad as hell (MAH) trade combines the concept of the TRT along with a long weekend or a holiday, such as Memorial Day, Thanksgiving, or Labor Day. As with a TRT trade, the MAH trade requires the market to have been in a sustained trend. And as we know from the psychology of the TRT, when the market has been in a sustained trend, there are traders who have made numerous attempts to pick a top and have gotten their clocks cleaned (vice versa for a bear market). Now, the long weekend comes. The traders are sitting at home over Memorial Day or July 4th and they're miserable about how they've been on the wrong side of the market for so long and how much money they've lost. Maybe their spouses are now even giving them market advice They've reached the point where they can't take it any more. They say uncle'' and are resolved to get the hell out of their losing positions as soon as the market reopens. If they've been short in a rising market, they're going to buy the opening. If...
In manual optimization, the user of the simulator specifies a parameter that is to be manipulated and the range through which that parameter is to be stepped the user may wish to simultaneously manipulate two or more parameters in this manner, generating output in the form of a table that shows how the parameters interact to affect the outcome. Another method is brute force optimization, which comes in several varieties The most common form is stepping every parameter through every possible value. If there are many parameters, each having many possible values, running this kind of optimization may take years. Brute force optimization can, however, be a workable approach if the number of parameters, and values through which they must be stepped, is small. Other forms of brute force optimization are not as complete, or as likely to find the global optimum, but can be run much more quickly. Finally, for heavy-duty optimization (and, if naively applied, truly impressive...
You won't find any inexplicable stock market jargon in this book - I write in plain English. You will not have to start scratching your head and think what is he on about or what the hell is a head and shoulders formation I'm going to explain how to buy and sell shares the easy way, and guide you to the winners. I'll be taking you through every step and explaining all the silly jargon.
Still think you want to do this An important first step in the process is to begin researching the different areas within investment banking and the positions available. We focus here on jobs available for undergrads and MBAs, since these are the slots recruiters must fill by August of each year. Nevertheless, this information is also useful for mid-career candidates seeking to enter at a higher level. Basically, the work falls into four principal areas corporate finance, sales, trading, and research. Keep in mind These are very different types of jobs, and most banks won't look kindly upon people who apply for positions in more than one area (the implication being that you don't know what the hell you want to do ).
If you work on a good risk plan you will reduce the chances of blowing out. I know that anytime I took a really big hit it wasn't because I was wrong in the market (yes I was wrong, but the reason I blew out was I used poor money management and traded too large a position or allowed myself to risk too much on a trade). Hell, I even blew out once being right in the market direction. But I tried so large a position that I panicked when it immediately went against me, and I reversed my position trying to make up the loss.
Although winning in the market has its attendant demons, losing is a much greater evil. Losses are the precursors as well as the correlate of literally hundreds of potential trading blunders, not the least of which is the trader's unwillingness to follow the system that produced the losses. Because systems take time to perform, the trader who abandons a system often does so prematurely, frequently just before the system would have started to perform as it did in back-testing. Traders must work through losses without abandoning their system(s) if success is to follow.
In his book Devil Take the Hindmost A History of Financial Speculation, Edward Chancellor suggests that the first case of short selling took place in 1609, when the Dutch merchant, Isaac Le Maire, organized short sales on stocks of the Dutch East Indies Company VOC listed on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. In 1610, the VOC directors convinced the Dutch States-General to declare short selling illegal because bearish speculators were incommensurably damaging innocent shareholders, among which are widows and orphans . Since the illegal activities continued anyway, instead of forbidding them, in 1689 the Dutch government decided to levy a tax on profits from short sales. 1867 the Parliament passed another law forbidding short sales on banking shares, but once again the law went unapplied. In 1868, a testimony at the Royal Commission demonstrated that the stock market crash had not been caused by short sales, but rather by insane banking practices and by a poor asset quality.
Yet when they sacrifice their culture to do so, they make a deal with the devil, trading a chance to be great for a chance to be big, and usually failing. Apple almost lost everything when it chose wrong, but got a very rare second chance through very rare leadership. HP may have an opportunity to reclaim its soul. Perhaps the effort would be helped if the board spent some time considering this section of its corporate objectives Of course, words are cheap. We want to invest in companies whose actions demonstrate that they take culture seriously, respect their employees, and understand that a great company is more likely to get big than a big company is to get great.
What the hell is 6am I know people in the Sunday Times' Day In The Life column always wake up at 6am, go running for five miles, have power breakfasts-, make executive decisions and are dressed and at their desks by 7am . But this day in the life is an honest one. I will be asleep. And if you try andwakemeup I will kill you . It is really quite simple.
Allan Raphael, who worked with Soros in the 1980s, believed that Soros's stoicism, a rare trait among investors, had served him well. You can count them on one hand. When George is wrong, he gets the hell out. He doesn't say, vI'm right, they're wrong.' He says, Tm wrong,' and he gets out, because if you have a bad position on, it eats you away. All you do is think about it-at night, at your home. It consumes you. Your eye is off the ball completely. This is a tough business. If it were easy, metermaids would be doing it. It takes an inordinate amount of discipline, self-confidence, and basically lack of emotion.
Investing in distressed situations involves purchasing the claims of companies that have already either filed for Chapter 11 or Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection, are trying to avoid Chapter 11 through an out-of-court debt restructuring with their creditors, or are in immediate danger of doing so. Companies in danger of filing will typically trade at a wide spread to Treasuries, reflecting this risk. This includes originally issued high yield securities, or fallen angels, which were originally deemed investment grade.
In my investments the majority of the business assets are located within two to three hours of my home. As an investor I want to go out and be able to kick the side of the wall, or kick the desk, and find out where the hell the investment is. I don't want an investment a five-hour plane ride away. You also want to go out and see what other people think of the business, depending on what the business is and depending on whom you'd ask.
At a trading seminar, I once demonstrated this point by, placing a personal check of mine in a scaled envelope and then added it to 14 similar envelopes in a clear plastic bag. The attendees each had the opportunity to reach in and draw out an envelope. The person who drew the one with the 5,000 check would be allowed to keep it. Another thing I learned from jack was that strong people do not respect weak ones. I had put up with enough of Jack's reneging on our coin flips so when he decided not to pay up and kept his quarter, I blasted him in the stomach as hard as I could. Astonished, he glared at me, asking, Why the hell did you do that You know I'm going to clean your clock now.
Failure to perform routine maintenance, which results in a neglected, rundown-looking rental property, with thousands of dollars worth of deferred maintenance This type of property appeals only to a class of tenants known universally as tenants from hell, who are notorious for not paying their rent and being malicious vandals. 5. Failure to initiate eviction lawsuits against the nonpaying tenants from hell This results in the property being taken over by the tenants from hell, which usually ends with the lender foreclosing on the mortgage or deed of trust
At first, there will be some aspects that you may need assistance with. If you are dealing with a mortgage broker, he or she can usually provide help. Brokers are often able to go over the numbers with you, and once they see a feasible project they will get excited as hell. If they can make the loan, then everyone will benefit.
Or by American tourists, or by drug dealers and other underworld characters who wanted to keep their money outside the purview of American authorities. The interest paid on those deposits also accumulated abroad, so that what used to be a few billion dollars became trillions of dollars.
You must thoroughly screen all tenant applicants uniformly in order to avoid renting to immature, uncivilized, financially irresponsible, and managementintensive people, better known as tenants from hell The best way to weed out potentially undesirable tenants is to check, verify, and evaluate their
A historian of speculation takes a jaundiced view of the Efficient Market Theory in past centuries. Edward Chancellor writes in Devil Take the Hindmost, his treatise on speculation through the centuries, that Believers in efficient markets claim that speculators help to 'discover' values and that stock prices move randomly because they reflect all information relevant to their value. In the nineteenth-century American market, however, intrinsic values were actually hidden by the operations of speculators. Under such conditions, the outsider could only trust to luck in making an investment decision. This suggests a 'random walk' of a different nature not the randomness of efficiency where every share price reflects its current inherent value and future changes in price come about only on the receipt of new information, but the randomness of manipulation where a stock might be bulled, beared, trapped, gunned or cornered at the whim of a small clique of operators. 9
There The GDP numbers of 2nd quarter against 3 , Compared to the moving average of 6 years, were out of the Bollinger bands.Blah Blah Blah Who cares I know one thing, and that one thing is you are losing money. The market is kicking your ass Save your stories for the fireside, save them for the Kids, but get the hell out of that Bulls hit position, and stop fu*cking telling me your Crazy story.
2In the case of mutual funds, the proper fair value of the assets (often hundreds of security positions), as represented by the NAV, needs to be determined on a daily basis within a few hours, which creates operational and logistical challenges. As we will see, to get this right, the devil is as is often the case in the details.
Investors should assess whether the broker dealer is a counterparty to the transaction and therefore has a potential conflict of interest. Is the individual who is providing the quote a senior executive who is truly capable of providing an accurate price, especially when complex modeling is involved The point is that sometimes the devil is in the details, namely the task-level procedures for obtaining prices on a regular basis. Process, procedural, or systems problems accounted for 30 percent of these valuation-related failures in our study.
The rumors did not bother him that much. What could happen In his worst-case scenario, he would last a year before Soros fred him. During that year, at least, he would get one hell of an education, and the year would only work to his advantage once he returned to Duquesne. In September 1988, Soros offered him the job, and Druckenmiller accepted it. Soros's replacement had been found. Now all Druckenmiller had to do was demonstrate that he was up to the job.
To answer this question, you must have a clear understanding of the problem. It is crucial to know where you want to go when it comes to exchanges. If the answer to the question stated above is No, it does not solve my problem or move me closer to a solution, then, obviously, the exchange should not be attempted. There is an exception to this rule and you might be surprised how often it arises. If in the answer to the above question you answered it exactly as was shown but then added, but what the hell, it is something to do and who knows where it might lead, then go for it, because if you are stagnating with the property you have, and can switch it for something else, what is the down side of the deal If you do not see any, then a change, no matter where it takes you, might be good tonic after all.
Gain the Discipline to Fade the Crowd To succeed as mean reversion traders, traders have to overcome many psychological obstacles crowd psychology, media hype, and the direction of recent price action. All of these particular demons can be boiled down to one basic personality prerequisite discipline. Without the discipline (and courage) to fade recent price action, we will forever remain paralyzed with fear, unable to initiate the trades generated by our systems.
There is no easy way to become truly comfortable with some of the mathematical aspects of finance except to read the material first without trying to grasp what is truly happening. In doing that, you will get the feel for what happens. If you are happy with that part of things and are not curious about how in the devil did he get that answer, then slide on through this chapter and save it for another day. The moment you see the opportunity to get involved with a potential profit situation dealing with a mortgage, however, rush back to the comfort of this book, reread this chapter, and let it carry you through the details of your present situation.
Naive approaches toward J2EE web tier implementation typically result in JSP pages containing excessive amounts of Java scriptlets, with a confused mixture of presentation and business logic. The result is an untestable presentation layer, refactoring headaches, and maintenance hell. Many, if not most, J2EE web developers have either implemented such applications themselves, when less experienced, or inherited such code for maintenance and enhancement, cursing the original developers.
The poor U.S. dollar has been much maligned in recent years. It has been weak, so goes prevailing wisdom, and will lead to our economic undoing. Views down this line are near-religious in their conviction. Investors forget In the late-i99os, we were all concerned a too-strong dollar would keep foreigners from wanting to trade with us, leading to our economic undoing. Following that logic, what doesn't lead to our economic undoing Maybe there is an optimal exchange rate with every other world currency we should aspire to achieve. I don't know what that exchange rate would be or how we'd endeavor to maintain it in a free market. And I'll take a free market over a government jigger any day of the week or year of my life. But investors must think such a state of jiggering perfection exists because they love to complain about the dollar and its direction leading us to hell.
There are bound to be times when traders find themselves in a losing position. For some traders, when it's a big loss, it will arouse the demon fear. Or they just can't admit they have been so wrong. Instead of dismantling the position, they attempt to devise a strategy to miraculously change it into a winner. How do they go about working miracles They may try to straddle their position with a put, or they may try to sell calls above a losing long position. As me poor old Irish grandfather used to say, Laddie, never try to turn a sow's ear into a silk purse. The more you attempt to convert a bold-faced loss into a world-class winner, the
I Homeowner-centered attorney Homeowner-centered attorneys truly represent the homeowner's best interests. They won't file for bankruptcy if the homeowner is unlikely to qualify, and they won't let an investor push the homeowner around. These attorneys know how to play the legal system and can make your life a living hell if you're not pitching what the attorney considers a fair offer.
The numbers of agents of different types generally are not observable. Indeed, consider a market analog of''Maxwell's Demon'' who is able to instantly parse all market events. The Demon cannot discern chartists and ''fundamentalists'' in typical situations, such as when the current price, being lower than the fundamental price, is growing. In this case, all traders buy rather than sell. Similarly, when the current price, being higher than the fundamental price, is falling, all traders sell rather than buy. An example of evolution of the total number of traders (in units of n0) is shown in Figure 12.4 for different values of the impatience factor. Obviously, the higher the impatience factor, the deeper the minimum of n(t) will be. At sufficiently high ''impatience'' factor, the finite-difference solution to equation (12.4.19) falls to zero. This means that the market dies out due to trader impatience. However, the exact solution never reaches zero and always approaches the asymptotic...
In the game of baseball, there are players who win games for their team through sheer speed. Often referred to as speed demons, they intimidate opponents with their talent for stealing bases and scoring runs. Other players are known for their ability to knock the ball out of the park. Known as power hitters, these players have the ability to shift the momentum of a game with a single swing of the bat. Another group of players is known for their defensive prowess. Their talent for negating the other team's offense by making spectacular fielding plays earns them the title of golden glove.
Writing the Globetrader blog I maintain to this day has made me accountable. I started the blog because I hoped that by sharing my approach to the markets, older, wiser traders would read it and question me or point me in a different direction by commenting on my ideas. Fortunately for me some of the comments I received proved invaluable and are now an integral part of my trading system. You don't need to write a public blog, but writing about your thoughts in a trade, how you see the markets, or what constitutes a trade setup structures your approach to the markets. Right now I'm at a point in my development as a trader where I try to dissect that gut feeling I wrote about earlier, so I can consciously see why my subconscious mind just gave me a clear Go ahead and take that trade signal. Or why it just questioned an otherwise wonderful looking signal and is proven right a minute later. By writing about these trade setups, I can relive the feelings I had when the trade opportunity...
When trading, figuring out the market is only part of the battle. A far bigger challenge is dealing with yourself and your personality quirks and emotional demons. Most traders have a hard time keeping their trading ego in check. The best trader in natural gas (we'll call him MVP) happens to work for MBF and is like a brother to me. This is a man who would never gamble more than 50 or 100 on a hand of blackjack at a casino. I think that if he ever lost more than 500 or 1,000 in Atlantic City or Las Vegas, he would kill himself. Yet, this same person thinks nothing of trading hundreds of natural gas contracts at a time and doesn't bat an eye over having hourly profit and loss swings in the six figures.
Out of all the rules everywhere I looked, the most popular and what I think is the most important money-making rule is to trade with the major trend. Though the most obvious of rules, it is too easy to try and sell rallies in bull markets, thinking the market has moved too far, too fast. I have lost lots of money doing this. Hell, I thought crude was overpriced
Don't trade until the technicals and the fundamentals both agree. This one I differ with a little, though it can be sound advice and when they do agree, you have a hell of a trade on your hands. However, I prefer to use the technicals to confirm if the news is having any input or not. Remember that a great trade is one where the market does not react the way you'd
Everybody must face one's demons impatience, fear, negative thoughts when facing a trade. In the day-trading business, you can make a fortune and you can lose your shirt. The better you are, the more you have mastered that internal anxiety that causes common mistakes.
There are many businesses in which successful people over the years make a hell of a lot more money than those in trading. However, I do not know of a single business where a person can make or lose as much money in such a short period of time as in the trading world. The greatest danger that one faces after being exposed to the markets is the loss of their personal monetary value system.
Almost everyone has heard about the tenant from hell who trashes the house and leaves owing six months' rent and fix-up costs in the thousands. Movies have been made about the subject to further dramatize it. There is no question that this kind of thing does happen. However, it doesn't have to happen to you nor should it if you pay attention to what I tell you.
Istory offers many examples of heirs to large fortunes who, through laziness, incompetence, or low character, managed to squander their forebears' inheritance and die penniless. Others, however, take the gifts bestowed upon them and use them to build something greater, and something of their own. Despite many obstacles and inner demons, Howard Hughes fought his way into the latter category.
Deriv . . . what You might say what the hell are they unless, of course, you're my church's pastor. Derivatives are the largest financial market in the world. As of July 2005, the total dollar value exceeds 280 trillion. It easily dwarfs the world economy. Easily Now, you don't have to understand them but you should be aware of what could go wrong if a derivatives problem occurs. The once-mighty Enron imploded very quickly primarily due to tragic errors in their derivatives portfolio. Derivatives accidents have dotted the financial landscape over the past 10 to 15 years and they had (and will have) the potential to do major damage to the stock market.
Let's assume for a minute that we both go to a trading conference and run into each other in an elevator. If I asked about your trading system, could you answer me accurately in the 30 seconds it takes the elevator to reach my floor The trader who is laser focused and can confidently explain how his system is far more likely to achieve consistent results than the trader who either can't explain how he trades or changes his trading strategy every time you speak with him. It doesn't matter if you focus on trading the news, support and resistance, breakouts, or flipping a coin what matters is how focused you are and how well you stick to that methodology, come hell or high water. If you can't explain how you trade in the time it takes to ride an elevator, how do you expect to make a trading decision in real time Focus on one trading system and you'll be liberated from the burden of chasing the next great trading system.
A word of warning You may not find these clauses racy or exciting, but make sure you study and use them. They will not only make you a lot of money, but they will lower your risk. Talk them through with your attorney. Remember the expression that the devil is in the details Well these clauses are some of the most important details in any owner-carry deal you will ever do.
Perhaps the timid enjoyed a few good years. But eventually, the strain got to them, the strain of being responsible for other people's money. The price was high, paid in the currency of lost sleep, leisure time, lost friends, a lost home life because all hell was breaking loose in the financial markets. In time, the faint of heart found other work.
Cerberus is the name of a hedge fund well known for its restructuring feats in companies going bust. The fund's name, taken from Greek mythology, evokes memories of the Divine Comedy in which the Florentine poet Dante meets the three-headed, red-eyed dog Cerberus who guards the gates of hell and barks and rends the spirits of the damned. In the same way, the hedge fund Cerberus feeds insatiably on companies that have been caught by a downdraft and driven to the hell of bankruptcy, and through a creative destruction process seeks to restructure them and sell them out again to make a profit.
Yet in spite of everything I have written and spoken about regarding trader behavior since 972, the trader's lot has not improved significantly. Traders, for the most part, are still victims of myriad weaknesses and shortcomings, demons of their own creation Most limitations can be corrected easily, but none can be changed without varying degrees of effort.
The Devil's Wedge In the old fable The Devil's Best Tool the Devil is going out of business and selling all the tools of his trade. For sale are implements such as the hammer of hatred, the scythe of spite, the maul of malice, and the dagger of deceit. As one would expect, the Devil's tools are all ominous, but oddly, the highest-priced item in his arsenal is an extremely worn and harmless-looking wedge. When asked why it is so expensive, the Devil slowly smiles and replies, To be totally candid, this may be my most powerful weapon of all. I call it the wedge of doubt. When all my other tools fail me, I know I can always rely on doubt and discouragement to break the heart and shatter the will of man.
Remoting is another area in which EJB, and especially SLSBs, have proven valuable. Up till EJB 2.0 SLSBs provided only RMI remoting EJB 2.1 added web services remoting. The EJB container's ability to serve remote requests, as well as manage the lifecycle of EJB instances, is valuable, as anyone who remembers the hell of managing custom RMI servers can confirm.
Clients now expect to impose more control over investment funds to manage their money for best return. The technocratic financial system has instigated countless analyses and compliance reports. Unfortunately, these reports are of little effectiveness when the powers at the top are hell-bent on driving the company to ruin. The Enron and Worldcom examples serve to illustrate this point. Investment risk management is not just about analyses and reports, it is about doing. Organic risk management is about investigating people and attacking with risk countermeasures.
For example, you might be told that the pound (in June, say) is 2.00 for cash or spot *, 1.97 for September and 1.94 for December. These different prices reflect the difference in interest rates on sterling and on dollars, when sterling interest rates are higher. Why Because if you want dollars in, say, 3 months time in exchange for pounds and want to pin down today's exchange rate, you could either 1) buy them now for cash on the spot or 2) buy them forward* , for settlementin3 months time. Option 2) must work out at exactly the same cost as option 1). Otherwise, Shell and Volkswagen and Citibank would arbitrage* the hell out of any difference. You can see that.
Markets seduce greedy traders into buying positions that are too large for their accounts and then destroy them with a reaction they cannot afford to sit out. They shake fearful traders out of winning trades with brief countertrend spikes before embarking on runaway moves. Lazy traders are the favorite victims of the market, which keeps throwing new tricks at the unprepared. Whatever your psychological flaws and fears, whatever your inner demons, whatever your hidden weaknesses and obsessions, the market will seek them out, find them, and use them against you, like a skilled wrestler uses his opponent's own weight to toss him to the ground. Successful traders have outgrown or overcome their inner demons. Instead of being tossed by the markets, they maintain their own balance and scan for chinks in the crowd's armor, so that they can toss the market for a change. They may appear eccentric, but when it comes to trading they are much healthier than the crowd.
Nice try, you crafty old devil, she rejoined. You know there is plenty of room for mistakes in your calculations too. It's easy to discount cash flows when they are nice and steady, but that doesn't help you when you've got some lumpy expenses that do not recur. For example, several years from now that tree will need serious pruning and spraying that don't show up in your flow. The labor and chemicals for that once-only occasion throw off the evenness of your calculations.
It doesn't take that long to do all these things you can knock it out in 30 minutes to 2 hours depending on how much you trade. But regardless of how long it takes, it's worth much more than the effort you'll put into it. By going over all your trades, you will gain insight into your trading and you'll learn what's working and what isn't. Those who never review their trades will never learn what they do right and wrong. Instead, they will keep making the same mistakes over and over again. By preparing for the next day, you will get a tremendous head start on the day. Think how much better you'll trade if you come in with a game plan and scenarios for all your trades. No matter what curveball the market throws at you, you'll be ready. Hell, they will all look like hanging curves if you are prepared.
I remember a student of mine who was once a young aggressive trader who would pounce on any trade like a new puppy pounces on a ball, all four feet at maximum energy. During the market climbs, he would do extremely well and the word back off was not in his vocabulary. He was continually asking for the next trade. I warned him that once the market changed, and it always does, he would need to exercise some patience and wait for the next cycle of opportunity with long positions. The market did indeed change and I began to short the opens, which in his book was a retreat in the face of the enemy, and he kept going long come hell or high water. I wound up shorting almost exclusively for about 2 months the poor guy saw his great profits disappear and he eventually headed back into the work force.
Suppose the average number of collection days during a period increases materially in relation to the credit terms. Maybe part of any sales growth during the period is due to a relaxation in credit collection policies rather than to business efficiency. If those accounts are more likely to go uncollected, the sales growth might look good today but there'll be hell to pay tomorrow.
13, 1982, when Paul Volcker looked at the world of disinflation he had wrought and saw that it was good. He announced he was resting from his labors and proclaimed the interest rate cut that became a pattern. The inflationary devil had been driven from the land, and the United States was on its way to two decades of falling inflation and falling interest rates that would come to seem to most homeowners, corporate borrowers, and investors like a New Eden in contrast to the years of punishment from double-digit borrowing costs.
The equivalent of Fed watching for the stock market is earnings season. One of the primary responsibilities of a trading assistant is to keep a calendar marked with all the earnings release dates for the current quarter. A trading assistant s nightmare is to come into work one day and find that one of the stocks he or she covers is down 27 share. The stock actually went out yesterday at 50 share, so the market cap has been cut by more than half. The trading assistant then looks at the position monitor and notices a big position in the same stock. The trader barks at the assistant asking what the hell is going on in the stock. The assistant furiously checks through the news and finds the following headlines on Bridge (a financial news service)
To combat this problem, traders deploy a number of techniques to capture some profits quickly and remain in the trade, hoping to capture more. These techniques are great when a trade fails to reach its intended profit target, because the trader at least captured some profit along the way. Unfortunately the devil is in the mathematical details, and what appears to be a good idea on the surface often causes unintended consequences. Moving stop orders to breakeven or scaling out of a winning trade by reducing the position size as profits are accumulated can actually increase volatility in your trading returns. These techniques assume that a trader has a high percentage of successful trades because each trade takes on more risk in its initial phases than it takes in profits, even when the intended profit target is reached.
Finally, keep in mind this is a dumb technique, it knows not when a big trade will come or even when a winning trade will be delivered on a silver platter. That is why you cannot pick and choose these trades, you must simply take them, one at a time, as they come out of the hopper. If you pick and choose, you will invariably pick the losers and walk away from the winners. It is nothing personal, we all do, and the way to beat this devil is to take 'em all.
In January 1997 Mercury Finance announced that it had overstated earnings for the first three quarters of 1996 and for the whole of 1995 by a total of more than 100 . All corporate hell broke loose at Mercury Finance, a company in the business of lending to consumers with weak credit ratings. Its CEO and controller both left, a turnaround specialist was recruited, and pending deals with the Bank of Boston and Salomon Brothers were terminated. It lacked cash to meet its maturing commercial paper obligations and teetered on the edge of bankruptcy.
Related to the availability error is the halo effect. If a person has one salient (available) good quality, his other characteristics are likely to be judged by others as better than they really are. Handsome men and women tend to be rated highly on intelligence, athletic prowess, sense of humour and so on. In fact, physical appearance has little to do with such characteristics. There is a small correlation between being handsome and being intelligent (Sutherland, 1992), but it is not enough to account for the mistakes people make in their judgements. There is the opposite effect, which is known as the devil effect . The presence in an individual of one salient bad trait like selfishness can lower people's opinion of all his other characteristics he tends to be seen as a more dishonest and less intelligent than he really is. Persuasion can be enhanced by messages that arouse fear in the audience (Leventhal et al., 1965). To persuade people to stop smoking for instance it may be useful...
In Buffett's view, these new high-yield bonds were different from their predecessor fallen angels Buffett's term for investment-grade bonds that, having fallen on bad times, were downgraded by ratings agencies. The WPPSS bonds were fallen angels. He described the new high-yield bonds as a bastardized form of the fallen angels and, he said, were junk before they were issued. Wall Street's securities salespeople were able to promote the legitimacy of junk bond investing by quoting earlier research that indicated higher interest rates compensated investors for the risk of default. Buffett argued that earlier default statistics were meaningless since they were based on a group of bonds that differed significantly from the junk bonds currently being issued. It was illogical, he said, to assume that junk bonds were identical to the fallen angels. That was an error similar to checking the historical death rate from Kool-Aid before drinking the version served at Jonestown. 3
By and large, this rule stands up when comparing Western currencies. They don't seem to want to move in one direction for more than about three years. Hence the name Three Year Rule. During the tail end of 2004 and throughout 2005, most forecasters foresaw weak stock market returns due in part to an imploding dollar leading to the devil and dismay. Without knowing anything else, I knew to look for a turning point someplace before too long because of the Three Year Rule. I also knew global and domestic markets were likely to be positive in 2005 (as I forecast in my January 31, 2005, Forbes column) due, not primarily, but in some small part because of the positive surprise of a stronger dollar and the lack of a dollar disaster. Note there is no reason by itself a stronger dollar should contribute to stronger markets, except if people have a big fear of a weaker dollar that fails to materialize, they will end up being pleasantly surprised and their sentiment should improve, boosting...
Now I want you to remember that no bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. You won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country. Men, all this stuff you've heard about America not wanting to fight, wanting to stay out of the war, is a lot of horse dung. Americans traditionally love to fight. All real Americans, love the sting of battle. When you were kids, you all admired the champion marble shooter, the fastest runner, the big league ball players, the toughest boxers Americans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser. Americans play to win all the time. I wouldn't give a hoot in Hell for a man who lost and laughed. That's why Americans have never lost and will never lose a war Because the very thought of losing is hateful to Americans. Now, an army is a team. It lives, eats, sleeps, fights as a team. This individuality stuff is a bunch of crap. The biggest bastards who wrote that stuff about individuality for the Saturday Evening Post, don't know anything...
Junk bonds, also known as high-yield bonds, are nothing more than speculative-grade (low-rated or unrated) bonds. Before 1977, almost all junk bonds were fallen angels, that is, bonds issued by firms that originally had investment-grade ratings but that had since been downgraded. In 1977, however, firms began to issue original-issue junk.
When a diligent money manager or enterprising individual calls a company to confirm some material information obtained through the investor's own initiative, the company response is Our lawyers told us we can't respond to your question until we disclose our complete response through a fully accessible medium. Sorry, goodbye. From conversations with several microcap investment managers, we have confirmed that this response, or a paraphrase, is always the case. From conversations with some of the top securities lawyers in the nation, we have learned that this response is the most appropriate. No guidance from the target company, however indirect, is advisable. This prevailing condition leaves the diligent investor with two alternatives (1) sustained queries among the target company's suppliers, customers, distributors, and competitors or (2) the hell with 'em.
This type tends to be one of the most aggressive traders on any trading floor. Type threes are extremely success-oriented and push themselves to the limit. Threes ride the bubble. They are on the brink whenever possible. As traders, they are often competing against everyone else on the floor. Trading profits measure success the devil takes the hindmost. If this behavior gets out of whack, they become arrogant exhibitionists. They face the danger of overtrading because they have to prove they are the best. In the worst case, they become narcissistic and worry only about their image. This causes them to trade to perpetuate the image they think is real. Unfortunately, there is nothing behind the image they have of themselves. So they must constantly feed it to make it real for themselves. If they realize what is driving them, then they can adjust. They must learn to trade for only themselves, rather than worrying about what others think of them, by taking what the market is giving on any...
Encouraged, Hughes sought greater success and began work on a film about the Royal Air Force in World War I. But the neophyte filmmaker was not content to merely finance Hell's Angels he wrote Thus, Hughes experienced the first of three major plane crashes. After a few weeks of recuperation, he was back at work. However, talking pictures had by this time asserted their dominance in Hollywood, so Hughes reshot nearly all of Hell's Angels with a new actress, blonde bombshell Jean Harlow.
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